There’s a weird calculus in the news business in the Trump era: Organizations are seeing record traffic, but not fully monetizing it, leading to massive layoffs across the industry. Even before the coronavirus destroyed the industry, media companies were taking it on the chin. 7,800 people lost their media jobs in 2019.
In some cases, the Trump presidency has indeed been a financial boom, particularly for the big fish in the media pond, like the The New York Times and Washington Post, And of course, the cable news networks have seen ratings boom, up 72 percent from a year ago. As Les Moonves said in 2016, “[Trump] may be bad for America, but it’s damn good for CBS.” Naturally, the conversation across Medialand recently is, “what’s next?”
Yet there’s palpable concern the spotlight may fade with the departure of President Donald Trump and the arrival of President-elect Joe Biden. “What happens when the level isn’t Defcon 5 all the time?” asks Frank Sesno, a former CNN Washington bureau chief who is now director of strategic initiatives at George Washington University’s School of Media and Public Affairs. “We may be about to find out.”
Beyond looking at what a news business looks like post Trump, a question that’s swirling around: can Trump himself benefit from a Trump Bump with his own media company?
The thinking has been that the soon-to-be former president will start his own TV network to rival Fox News. But that’s not going to happen. The costs of starting a national cable TV network are too high, especially for a guy who’s about a half-billion dollars in debt that will have to be paid off over the next two years. Of course, there will always be suckers looking to fund charlatans.
Also worth your time to watch this Brian Stelter interview with Newsmax CEO.
“There’s no way you can start a new network in this environment,” said Derek Baine, an analyst for Kagan, a media research group for S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Cable and satellite subscriptions have declined from 97.5 million in 2016 to 79.2 million at the end of the third quarter of this year, according to Kagan’s data.
Other media executives who have dealt with Trump say privately the president likely does not want the heavy lift involved in getting a new channel launched. Baine said it would be more viable for Trump to be involved in the acquisition of an existing channel that already caters to his rabid followers.
This makes sense. I can see a world where Trump licenses his brand to an already established media company, one sympathetic to Trumpism. Say a Newsmax or an OANN, which, according to a January Wall Street Journal report, had:
Allies of President Trump are pursuing an effort to acquire right-leaning news channel One America News Network, according to people familiar with the matter, in a bid to shake up a conservative media market that has been dominated by Fox News.
(Image via Al Drago/New York Times)
The tet-a-tet between Trump and Fox News’s Rupert Murdoch has been playing out in the press for the last few weeks.
Why a Trump Loss May Be No Match for Rupert Murdoch’s Realpolitik (NYT)
With Trump's Loss, Murdoch's Fox News Faces Wrath And Tough Choices (NPR)
As Trump is defeated, Murdoch family tries to dodge backlash for Fox News (The Intercept)
Is Rupert Murdoch completely off the Trump train? (Vanity Fair)
What happens to Fox News if Trump loses? Rupert Murdoch is prepared. (Washington Post)
Are Fox News and Murdoch world turning on Trump? (CNN)
Of course, there’s been no love lost between the two, a “friendship of convenience”:
The media company that elevated Trump and poisoned the brains of millions of Americans, is now fighting the president. And the devoted Trump audience is apparently “migrating” to new social platforms to engage in a circle-jerk of ideas. It’s like the marketplace of ideas, but for conspiracy theory advocates who refuse to participate in reality.
Over the weekend, Parler shot to the top of Apple’s App Store in downloads. As of Monday, it had eight million members, nearly double the 4.5 million it had last week. Rumble said it projected 75 million to 90 million people will watch a video on its site this month, up from 60.5 million last month. And Newsmax said more than 3 million people watched its election night coverage and that its app has recently been in the top-10 daily apps downloaded from Apple’s App Store.
I am curious as to how these social platforms will make money. Marketers will not go near political content on a news site. You think advertisers will follow them to a political social platform?
So perhaps this is the kind of audience that a Trump media network will go after.
Variety, again:
Fox News’ audience has been rapt during the months leading up to the election, but one analyst wonders if Trump might seek to launch a competing outlet for conservatives, potentially by using a small Fox News rival like OANN or Newsmax. “We speculate that perhaps, over time, the new network could lop off around 20% of the Fox News audience and reach 10% share of the entire news market,” says Michael Nathanson of research firm MoffettNathanson in a recent note.
The challenge, though, with a Trump media network is, well, Trump. Axios reports today that Trump is looking to start a paid subscription digital model.
Trump's digital offering would likely charge a monthly fee to MAGA fans. Many are Fox News viewers, and he'd aim to replace the network — and the $5.99-a-month Fox Nation streaming service, which has an 85% conversion rate from free trials to paid subscribers — as their top destination.
It’s easy to build a digital media company today. The challenge, though, will come in both the brand and the pipes. What company will put their logo on a Trump media network? Will we see the chumbox appear? Which SSP will allow Trump inventory through its pipes? What brands will bid on it? We talk about brand safety a lot; for many companies, a Trump streaming network could be the most brand unsafe environment you can find. Besides Parler.
“It would be a brand safety minefield,” David Nyurenberg, founder and CEO of Valor Digital, told me in an email. “Although an obviously lucrative source of revenue for any exchange or SSP that would monetize it. I envision you might see Taboola or Outbrain working with them. Taboola is more likely as they've been more laissez faire about disinfo than Outbrain. I've worked with clients who have military and gov audience targets. They actively want to buy Fox news and don't care about conservative sites like the Daily Caller. So there will definitely be an appetite for it.”
Get ready for a new wave of Fake News.
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Phish, “Birds of a Feather”
Some interesting links:
For publishers:
Bloomberg Media CEO Justin B Smith on new 24/7 streaming channel Quicktake and reaching 250,000 subscribers (Press Gazette)
False choices: There's no "right" way to build a sustainable media business (The Rebooting)
For media criticism:
After worshiping Trump voters, New York Times flips the script on Biden voters (Press Run)
The next fleet of Breitbarts is already raking in your ad dollars (Branded)
For platforms:
What does a Joe Biden presidency mean for tech? (CJR)
Amazon sues two influencers for peddling counterfeit goods on Instagram and TikTok (CNBC)
Tweets from Biden aide show campaign’s frustration with Facebook. (NYT)
For monopolistic behavior:
Google Photos will end its free unlimited storage on June 1st, 2021 (The Verge)
For retail looking to fix itself:
Target Is Reopening Its Looted Store With Black Shoppers in Mind (Bloomberg)
For ecommerce:
Unilever to launch review of its ecommerce ad business (Business Insider)
NBCUniversal Plans to More Than Double Ecommerce Retail Partners by Next Year (Adweek)
>>What company will put their logo on a Trump media network?<<
On one hand, I understand the view. Seems dangerous. On the other, plenty of companies have effectively done so via Fox. I wouldn't bet on an outcome, but also wouldn't rule out the chance that it could work financially. The question is how big would the paying audience have to be to float things? How much would they need ads? I don't know, but consider that conservatives who are relative small fries compared to Trump in brand recognition have been able to make a business out of it.